Thursday Night Football picks: Ravens at Chiefs

Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you. Party hard. It's #TequilaThursday.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC)

Prop Play: Isiah Pacheco OVER 2.5 receptions (-115, Caesars)

Quit biting your nails to the bone over the arrival of Samaje Perine. Eventually, the former Bronco will play a primary passing down role, but on a Chiefs team with limited running back depth, his addition was purely done out of need.

Pacheco will again display active hands as a receiver. Last season, he hauled in 44 receptions, snagging three or more passes in 11 of 18 total contests, including four grabs against the Ravens in the AFC Championship game. Overall, he averaged a healthy 13.7 routes per game, totaled a 9.9% target share and posted the second-highest catch rate (89.8%) of any RB in the league.

Conveniently, Baltimore has been ultra generous in short-field coverage against RBs. Over the last two years, the Ravens ranked No. 10 and No. 8 in most receptions allowed to the position. New defensive coordinator Zach Orr inherits a likely top-10 defense, but bank on The Punisher to haul in three or more grabs in the season opener.

SGP: Isiah Pacheco 1+ receptions, Isaiah Likely 10+ receiving yards, Travis Kelce 4+ receptions, Game UNDER 56.5 (+150, Caesars)

Isiah Pacheco 1+ receptions. Correlate. Synergize. And bring it all together. For all the reasons discussed above, we’re building in the lowest threshold possible. Perine may register 10-12 snaps, and Carson Steele could wrest away a few short-yardage touches, but Pacheco is fully prepared to handle 70%-80% of the opportunity share. All I need is one dump-off, and this leg kicks in. Last year, Pacheco caught at least one pass in 17 of 18 games, including the playoffs.

Isaiah Likely 10+ receiving yards. Reaffirming the belief the third-year tight end achieves Fantasy Flame status, the reported “chess piece” could check and mate a defender on an explosive pass play. As witnessed previously, he’s a downfield menace. Last season, Likely led all qualifying TEs in QB passer rating (147.0) when targeted. He also ranked top-10 at the position in yards per target (10.3) and yards per reception (13.7). Whether shadowed by a safety or linebacker in coverage, the 6-foot-4 and 247-pound Likely should spring loose for a chunk play or three. When he ran 15 routes or more last year, he hauled in a minimum of 10 yards in seven of nine games. That’s the magic number needed.

Travis Kelce 4+ receptions. Mr. Taylor Swift is head over heels in love. Beaming with good energy, the future sure-fire Hall of Famer is bound to “Shake It Off.” At 34, he’s no spring chicken, but after finishing top-10 in a multitude of advanced categories last season, he’s only slowly aging. It’s doubtful Kelce replicates the 11 receptions posted in the AFC title game against Baltimore last January. Still, I need only 36.3% of that effort to cash the leg. Last year, he snagged four or more passes in 17 of 19 total games. With Marquise Brown sidelined due to a sternoclavicular setback, Kelce's total targets should end up in the 7-11 range. Considering he was No. 1 among all TEs in catchable target percentage in 2023, this should be a sweat-free hit.

Game UNDER 56.5 points. Here’s where adhering to the unrelated-related strategy can really pay off. Call it a juice enhancer. The first three legs are positive offensive spins. When they are matched with an under on the game total — even on a significantly higher alt line — smoke bellows from the algo's ears. In the 2023 AFC Championship game, a whopping 27 total points were scored. Though both offenses are likely to keep the scoreboard busy in Thursday's opener, the game should stay well under 56.5. Last season, the Ravens and Chiefs finished top-six in EPA per play D. The units, hardly overhauled this past offseason, will presumably finish in a similar range.

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