What a doubleheader we have today in Washington, with the St. John's Red Storm taking on the Duke Blue Devils, followed by the Michigan State Spartans vs. the UConn Huskies. Both games should deliver, but the focus here is on the Huskies vs the Spartans. The current line on FanDuel has UConn at -126 with a total of 135.5.
UConn comes into this matchup with some questions, most notably point guard Silas Demary Jr., who is dealing with an injury and was limited to just 21 minutes in the win over the UCLA Bruins. While he likely won’t be 100%, the four days of rest should help. The Huskies are also expected to get an important role piece back in Jaylin Stewart.
From a schematic standpoint, this matchup sets up well for UConn’s offense. Michigan State has struggled defending off-ball action all season, which plays directly into the Huskies’ offensive strengths. Even though UConn hasn’t shot the three particularly well over the past month, they have more than enough shooting talent with guys like Alex Karaban, Braylon Mullins, and Solo Ball. Positive shooting regression could easily show up here, especially with the extra rest. Michigan State allows opponents to take threes at a 46.3% rate, ranking near the bottom nationally. That’s a dangerous profile against a UConn team built to capitalize from deep. To me, UConn’s offense feels like a ticking time bomb.
On the other end, UConn will look to run Michigan State off the three-point line and force them into scoring at the rim. The Huskies rank inside the top 100 in limiting three-point rate, holding opponents to just a 36.3% clip from beyond the arc. That shifts this game into a “math battle”: UConn hunting threes while Michigan State settles for mid-range twos. Rebounding should be a wash, as both teams are elite in that area. That puts even more emphasis on ball security, shot quality, and efficiency, and in those departments, UConn has the edge.
The Pick: UConn Moneyline (-126)
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