Round 2 between St. John's Red Storm and the UConn Huskies tips off tonight in Hartford. The spread currently sits at UConn -5.5 with a game total of 146.5 on Fanduel Sportsbook. The matchup dynamics are fascinating after what we saw at Madison Square Garden. St. John’s took Round 1, 81–72, and despite the nine-point margin, shot-quality metrics suggested it played more like a 15+ point win, which matches the eye test. UConn shot 47% (9-19) from three, many of them contested, and an absurd 55% from the field overall… and still lost comfortably. That’s a red flag.

The Johnnies relentlessly hunted mismatches, targeting Alex Karaban, Solo Ball, Braylon Mullins, and Tarris Reed in space. If UConn adjusts by leaning more on Jaylin Stewart and Jayden Ross, they’ll improve defensively, but at the expense of offensive flow and spacing. And that plays directly into St. John’s identity. Since the New Year, SJU ranks top-10 nationally in defensive efficiency thanks to its heavy pressure scheme that blows up half-court rhythm. That’s exactly where UConn wants to operate: clean entries, structured sets, execution. When you disrupt that timing, everything worsens.

Both the UConn Huskies and the St. John's Red Storm have fallen short of FanDuel’s preseason expectations, with their futures odds being lower from their respective opening numbers as the season has progressed.

The turnover battle is the swing factor. Silas Demary struggled mightily in the first meeting with nine giveaways, and just had seven more in his last game against Villanova. Against a Pitino team that pressures the ball among the best in the nation, that's a dangerous territory as we saw in the first meeting. Extra possessions fuel St. John’s. Hurley is a great coach, and will adjust, but I think the schematic matchup favors St. John's

Speaking of Rick Pitino, he’s 5-1 ATS against Dan Hurley during his tenure with the Red Storm. The lone non-cover required a scorching combined 7-of-9 night from deep by now-NBA players Cam Spencer and Stephon Castle. Add in the fact that St. John’s has actually shot the ball better on the road 39.3% from three, roughly a 5% bump from their season average, and there’s even more reason to trust them in this spot. Ultimately, I don’t see UConn beating St. John’s at its own game. Give me SJU +5.5 and a sprinkle on the money-line.

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