We will be in for a rare treat this weekend at UFC 284 with Featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski attempting to become a two-division champ when he challenges UFC Lightweight champion Islam Makhachev. Volkanovski will have a chance to make history in his home country of Australia, but dethroning Makhachev to do it will not be an easy task.
Volkanovski, the number one pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC, will be moving from 145 to 155 for this matchup against Makhachev, who moved into the number two position in the UFC pound-for-pound rankings when he defeated Charles Oliveira for the Lightweight title at UFC 280 last fall in Abu Dhabi. Volk has a chance to become the eighth two-division champion in the promotion’s history and would be the fifth fighter to hold two titles simultaneously.
Makhachev will be attempting his first title defense since winning the belt in October when he faces Volkanovski and he will be doing so without long-time mentor and friend Khabib Nurgmagomedov in his corner. Nurmagomedov, who was one of the best coaches in MMA last year and a long-time staple in Makhachev’s corner, decided to step away from the sport entirely to spend more time with his family, leaving Makhachev without one of his biggest advocates.
When these two step into the octagon this weekend, they’ll be doing so with the two longest active win streaks in the UFC, with Volkanovski winning all 12 of his previous UFC fights and Makhachev winning in his past 11 trips to the octagon. Volkanovski is on a 22-fight winning streak overall dating back to May 2013, while Makhachev’s only loss came via an early knockout in his second UFC appearance in October 2015.
Since that loss, Makhachev has been unstoppable during his climb up the lightweight rankings as he picked up wins over Arman Tsarukyan, Drew Dober, Thiago Moises, Dan Hooker, and Bobby Green en route to his title shot at UFC 280. In that fight vs Oliveira, Makhachev held his own in the striking exchanges and eventually dropped the former champion in the second round, following Oliveira to the ground and submitting him via a nasty arm triangle choke.
Makhachev is 23–1 in his career heading into this weekend and his last five victories have all come by stoppage with four of them via submission. Like many fighters from Dagestan, Makhachev is a very solid grappler and his striking has evolved a decent amount in his most recent fights to go along with his grappling prowess. He only absorbs 0.95 significant strikes per minute in the UFC, which is an overall record low in the promotion’s history.
Meanwhile, Volkanovski is 25–1 in his career with a 60% stoppage rate and has absolutely dominated the top of the featherweight division in recent years. Since beating Max Holloway for the UFC Featherweight title at UFC 245, “Alexander the Great” has subsequently beaten him two more times while defending his title, with dominant wins over Brian Ortega and Chan Sung Jung sandwiched between those wins.
While Volkanovski will be noticeably shorter than Makhachev by four inches in height, he will have a slight one-inch reach advantage in the matchup. And while he is largely known to the UFC audience for his dominance in the featherweight division, Volkanovski actually has quite a bit of experience at higher weight classes. Ten fights on Volk’s record took place at welterweight and lightweight, and his only loss came in his fourth professional fight, which took place at 170 pounds and ended via a third round knockout.
Makhachev is a sizeable betting favorite in this matchup, with his Moneyline around -400 at a majority of sportsbooks as of this posting. While I think he is absolutely justified as the favorite in this matchup, there’s no way I’ll be laying that kind of chalk while simultaneously fading Volkanovski. While Makhachev is always live to find a submission, he does not have very much “championship round experience” in his career (defined as fourth and fifth rounds), which could prove to be an issue against Volkanovski, who has a wealth of 25-minute experience.
I don’t expect Makhachev to have any cardio or gas tank issues if this fight does make it to the latter rounds, but it’s hard not to favor Volkanovski’s experience there if that does happen. Makhachev will most likely be able to break through Volk’s 73% takedown defense for a few well-timed takedowns to help him win early rounds. While I think Makhachev will ultimately deny Volkanovski’s shot at history in a close decision, I would not be surprised to see Volkanovski hoisting both titles in victory this weekend in Perth either.
Betting Recommendation: Enjoy the Fight (Pass)