The UFC returns with a bang this weekend in Salt Lake City, Utah with one of their best lineups of the year for UFC 291. The card has eleven fights scheduled and the main event will feature a clash between perennial lightweight contenders Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje for the vacant “BMF” title. This will be the second time these two have stepped into the octagon together, with Poirier picking up a fourth round KO/TKO stoppage win in their first fight. Let’s take a closer look at how the rematch could potentially play out.
Poirier is 29-7 with 22 of those wins coming via stoppage and he has won four of his last five fights heading into this matchup. Since his first fight with Gaethje, Poirier has put together a 6-2 record with both losses by third round submission in championship opportunities against Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira. During the stretch, Poirier has put together several impressive victories, including two stoppage wins over Conor McGregor and a third round submission victory over Michael Chandler in his most recent trip to the octagon.
Gaethje is 24-4 with 20 of his wins coming via stoppage and he has won three of his past five fights, including a majority decision victory over Rafael Fiziev earlier this year at UFC 286. Since their original matchup in 2018, Gaethje has an identical 6-2 record with both losses also coming via submission at the hands of Nurmagomedov and Oliveira in title fights. Each of Gaethje’s last three wins have come in the final round or via decision after his previous three had all come via first round KO/TKO stoppages. Gaethje trains at high altitude with Elevation Fight Team in Denver, Colorado and will be used to fighting in the unique atmosphere Salt Lake City presents.
While you could spend a lot of time listing the similarities between these two fighters, perhaps the biggest difference between them is the amount of damage they absorb inside the octagon. Although both of them have solid striking volume, with Poirier landing 5.5 significant strikes per minute in his UFC career to 7.38 in Gaethje’s case, Gaethje absorbs a whopping 7.66 significant strikes during the same timeframe compared to only 4.25 for Poirier. While Gaethje has slowly become a bit more patient in his offensive approach during his UFC run since their initial fight, he still leaves himself open to being hit a ton during exchanges. Also of note, Gaethje has been stopped in all four of his career losses, each of them coming under the UFC banner.
This is one of the rare matchups in MMA that could literally end at any time, by any method and it would probably be hard to call it a complete surprise. With that said, I’m picking Dustin Poirier to pick up the win in this one and improve his career record in rematches to 4-0. I expect Poirier to do a better job of picking his spots in the striking exchanges and to be the more dangerous fighter on the ground should this matchup get there, giving him more ways to potentially win. If you aren’t confident in a winner for this fight, I would also recommend looking at the Over 2.5 Rounds or for the Fight to End in Round 4, 5 or by Decision props.
Pick: Dustin Poirier ML (-145 DraftKings)
Recommended Props: Over 2.5 Rounds (-126 FanDuel), Fight to End in R4/5/Decision (+106 FanDuel), Poirier to Win and Over 2.5 Rounds (+175 DraftKings), Poirier in R4/R5/Dec (+240 FanDuel)