UFC 293: Adesanya vs Strickland - Pick, Predictions & Favorite Bets
The main event for this weekend’s UFC 293 card will feature Israel Adesanya attempting to defend his UFC Middleweight championship against Sean Strickland. Adesanya will be starting his second reign as division champion, while Strickland is finally getting a much deserved shot at a title. Let’s take a look at how this fight could potentially play out:
Adesanya is 24-2 in his MMA career with 16 of those wins coming via KO/TKO and he is coming off a violent knockout win over Alex Pereira in April that saw him regain the 185-pound belt. He is one of the most dangerous strikers in the entire promotion with excellent kickboxing skills and heavy power in his hands also. He is the only two-time champion in the middleweight division’s history and has had a largely dominant run in the division with his only loss coming via fifth-round TKO against Pereira late last year (his other loss was at light heavyweight).
Strickland enters this fight with a 27-5 record in his career with 15 wins coming via stoppage. He has won back-to-back fights to earn his shot at the belt and will be making his fourth walk to the octagon in the past nine months when he faces Adesanya. Strickland is a pretty well-rounded fighter who usually prefers to work behind his jab and pepper his opponents with high-volume striking. While this is his first PPV main event, Strickland has been in five UFC Fight Night main events, and he has put together a 4-1 record in those spots.
While Strickland has earned his spotlight this weekend and shot at the title, he will have a very uphill battle to climb in this matchup. Adesanya will have 3” height and 4” reach advantages over Strickland, and he’s going to be the much more dangerous striker of the two. Strickland lands 6.19 significant strikes per minute, which is the third best rate in the division’s history. While he has high output and can run up his strike totals, Adesanya will clearly be landing the more damaging blows and does a better job of mixing his weapons and attacking at different levels. Strickland could potentially look to grapple in this matchup, but I’m not very confident he would find much success. I expect both fighters to keep this fight largely on the feet and Adesanya should absolutely win a clear decision or find a KO/TKO stoppage.
Betting this fight is a little tough, with Adesanya’s money line sitting at -650 or higher at most sportsbooks, so we’ll have to look at the prop markets to hopefully get some better value. While 66% of Adesanya’s wins have come via KO/TKO, he only has two wins via that method since originally winning the middleweight title in 2019. His other four victories have all come via decisions and that’s what I expect here also. Strickland is a pretty durable fighter overall who has only been knocked out one time while fighting at 185 pounds. I think Adesanya will get this one done via a pretty one-sided unanimous decision.
Pick: Israel Adesanya (-650 ML)
Prop Bets to Consider: Adesanya to Win in R4/R5/Dec (-130), Adesanya by Points (+135)
