The final UFC event of the year will take place this weekend with UFC 296 in Las Vegas. The card is headlined by two championship fights, and despite losing a couple of matchups during fight week, the overall lineup is still pretty stacked. Let’s take a closer look at the main event, which will feature Leon Edwards defending the UFC Welterweight title against Colby Covington.
Leon Edwards is 21-3 in his career with 10 wins via stoppage and he is entering this matchup on an 11-fight unbeaten streak. He’s coming off back-to-back victories over long-time division champion Kamaru Usman and will be attempting to make the second defense of his title in this matchup with Covington. Edwards is a dangerous striker who prefers to be on the feet and does an excellent job of mixing his weapons. His takedown defense and get up game are both pretty solid also, which is likely to come into play in this fight.
Colby Covington is 17-3 with 8 wins via stoppage and comes into this fight off a lengthy layoff since defeating Jorge Masvidal last March at UFC 272. Covington is 12-3 overall in the UFC with two of his three losses coming to former champion Kamaru Usman. He is an excellent wrestler who will relentlessly pursue takedowns in an effort to get the fight to the ground, but also isn’t opposed to standing and trading on the feet either. This will be Covington’s third championship opportunity in four years despite only winning two fights during that stretch.
I’m expecting this to be a fun and competitive fight in the early rounds with both fighters finding some mixed success. Covington will likely find a takedown or two at some point in the first couple of rounds, but being able to control and wear on Edwards on the ground won’t be an easy task. Edwards defends takedowns at a 69% clip in his career and has displayed a pretty strong get up game in the past, so I think he’ll be able to stay upright enough to also have some big moments of his own in the striking exchanges early.
This matchup will probably be decided in the latter rounds, where I think Edwards is more likely to be the fresher fighter and able to defend the takedown attempts from Covington easier. Both fighters are extremely durable, with each of their last nine fights going 14:59 or longer, so I would be shocked if this one doesn’t see the championship rounds. I think Edwards will have the potential to find a knockout or TKO stoppage late, but most likely this one ends up going the distance. Depending how competitive the early rounds are, I could see the judging on this one being pretty close and potentially split on the decision, but Edwards should pick up the win here.
As for the bets on this fight, the money line for Edwards is set at a pretty reasonable price in my opinion. If you’re wanting to look for props to bet on this fight, I think looking at Edwards to win in the latter rounds or by decision is a great place to start looking at plus money bets. If you’re feeling lucky and want to play something a bit riskier on this fight, sprinkling it to end via split or majority decision might not be the worst idea.