UFC São Paulo: Almeida vs Lewis: Main Event Pick, Prediction & Favorite Bets

After a weekend without fights to end October, the UFC returns this weekend with their second event of the year in Brazil. UFC São Paulo is currently scheduled to feature 13 fights and will be headlined by a heavyweight clash between Jailton Almeida and Derrick Lewis. Let’s take a closer look at the fighters, how this fight could play out, and some potential bets to target:

Jailton Almeida is 19-2 with a 100% finish rate in his wins, with twelve submissions and seven via KO/TKO. Almeida is 5-0 in the UFC and enters his second UFC main event matchup on a 14-fight winning streak. Almeida is an extremely dangerous grappler who will relentlessly pursue takedowns and immediately looks for finishes once he has his opponents down. According to UFC Stats, Almeida has only absorbed two strikes through his first five fights with the company, which means he’s very careful and patient while looking to get his opponents on the ground. Almeida was originally scheduled to face Curtis Blaydes, but he ultimately had to withdraw from the fight, leading to Lewis stepping in as a replacement.

Derrick Lewis is 27-11 in his career with 23 wins coming via stoppage, 22 of them via KO/TKO. He’s coming off an incredible performance in his last fight that saw Lewis come out with a flying-knee at the opening bell that would lead to a TKO stoppage shortly thereafter. That win was the 14th KO/TKO win for Lewis in the promotion, making him the all-time UFC knockout leader in the process. Lewis has incredible power in his striking and can turn out the lights of any opponent. However, he also has a history of struggling with cardio in some of his fights, and is on record saying he didn’t want anymore five-round fights.

This matchup is pretty straightforward, in my opinion: Either Lewis lands an early bomb during the opening exchanges, or Almeida is going to take this one to ground and look to wear Lewis out until he finds a stoppage of his own. I think Almeida will be patient and not rush with his takedown attempts, likely working in some front kicks up the middle to keep Lewis at range in the meantime. Once he gets Lewis down, Almeida will work his ground and pound while attempting to find a submission, and I like his chances of finding the stoppage here.

Lewis has been stopped in nine of his eleven losses, with seven coming via KO/TKO and two via submission. While most of Almeida’s wins have come via submission (12), I’m not sure Lewis’ chin will hold up to the dangerous ground and pound of Almeida long enough for him to find one. Lewis has shown a pretty good ability to get back to his feet in the past when he has been taken down, but I don’t expect him to survive too many takedown attempts here. I think there’s a pretty good chance Almeida will win this fight via a ground and pound TKO in the first two rounds once he’s able to secure Lewis on the ground.

As far as betting on this fight, I think Almeida’s money line and the Almeida to win in R1/2/3 prop are good parlay pieces for this weekend. If you’re looking for a line that’s a little easier to swallow for straight bets, you can consider playing Almeida to win under 1.5 rounds or in the first two rounds. A riskier prop bet that pays plus money that might be worth a look for this fight would be for Almeida to win by KO/TKO in the early rounds.