It is officially UFC Fight Week once again after the promotion took a three-week hiatus for the holiday season following their last event, which took place on December 17th. They will be looking to kick off the new year with a bang as UFC Vegas 67 currently has 12 fights scheduled for Saturday night.
While pretty much everyone in the MMA community is thrilled that UFC fights will be returning after the lengthy layoff, the excitement for MMA bettors has been dampened a bit by the current betting lines for the event.
Since there were no UFC fights for the bookmakers to worry about handicapping for the past three weekends, it seems they were able to really zone in and research this card, as a vast majority of the best fighters on it have moneylines that are set so high they are almost unplayable for many bettors.
When this occurs, it also means the oddsmakers have been able to look deeper into the lesser-known fighters on the lineup, making it much more difficult to find betting upsets.
While this makes it harder to find underdogs worth backing in these situations, it definitely does not make it impossible. For events where the bookmakers have extra time to research the fights, as opposed to the normal one-week period, I always like to start searching for underdogs by looking at the closest betting matchups.
Using that method, it didn’t take long to find someone that I think is definitely worth taking a shot on this upcoming weekend in Las Vegas.
Claudio Ribeiro is making his UFC debut this weekend against Abdul Razak Alhassan, and I think Ribeiro has a great chance of picking up the win as the slightest of underdogs at -105 (some sportsbooks have already moved the Moneyline to a -110 pick ‘em).
Claudio Ribeiro
Ribeiro is 10–2 as a professional with a 100% knockout rate in his victories and he has been submitted in one of his two defeats. Alhassan is 11–5 and also boasts a 100% knockout rate in his wins, while he has been knocked out himself in one of his five losses.
While Alhassan has the UFC experience edge in this fight with 10 fights under the promotion’s banner, he has gone an underwhelming 5–5 in those fights, including losses in four of his past five. Although Ribeiro will be making his debut with the promotion, he has won six straight fights, including a nasty 25-second knockout win over Ivan Valenzuela on Dana White’s Contender Series that earned him a contract.
Ribeiro will be the younger fighter in this matchup by roughly seven years and he will also have 3” height and 4” reach advantages over Alhassan as well. I think both of these things will play key factors in a matchup that is likely to be decided on the feet via striking. The only time Ribeiro has been stopped was via submission in his professional debut, and his only loss in his ensuing eleven fights was via split decision.
I think the length and youth of Ribeiro will work in his favor and help allow him to dictate the striking exchanges in this matchup. If Ribeiro isn’t able to put away Alhassan inside the distance via KO, I think he will be able to comfortably outpoint him en route to a unanimous decision win.
WagerWire
While there aren’t very many betting underdogs that I really like for upsets on the UFC Vegas 67 card, I will definitely be taking a small flier on Ribeiro’s Moneyline, as well as likely placing a small wager on his knockout prop once those markets fully open up.
If you are interested in jumping on this one, I suggest doing so sooner than later. With the line already moving to a pick ’em at most sportsbooks, there is a decent chance this line will have finished flipping by Fight Night with Ribeiro listed as the slight favorite.
Underdog of the Week: Claudio Ribeiro (-105)
If You’re Feeling Lucky: Ribeiro by KO/TKO (N/A)