This weekend’s UFC Vegas 69 card currently has 11 fights scheduled for the event, with Erin Blanchfield and Jessica Andrade scheduled to face each other in the main event in a battle of two of the best fighters in the UFC Women’s Strawweight division. Like a lot of the other smaller cards without many household names, this event will take place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Blanchfield was originally scheduled to face Taila Santos at this event, however, Santos decided to drop out of the fight due to her coaches having VISA issues trying to enter the US to be in her corner for Saturday’s fight. That opened the door for Jessica Andrade, who is stepping into this fight on one week’s notice. It was revealed yesterday that Andrade has signed a new contract with a significant pay raise, which is presumably part of the reason she accepted this fight.
The original main event that was planned for this card, a fight between UFC bantamweight’s Cory Sandhagen and Marlon “Chito” Vera, was postponed and rescheduled as the main event of UFC San Antonio in late March. That decision, along with a string of cancellations and subsequent short notice replacements, have left this card a bit weaker than usual.
However, there will still be some exciting fights as always. In the co-main event of the card, Zac Pauga and Jordan Wright will face off in what promises to be an entertaining fight. In sixteen professional fights, Wright has never made it the distance in a fight and it would frankly be stunning to see that change here against Pauga.
Another fight that should definitely be entertaining is Jim Miller vs Alexander Hernandez. Miller is the all-time leader for the UFC in total fights (40) and total wins (24) and we’ll be hoping to add to both of those categories when he faces Hernandez, who is stepping into this fight as a short notice replacement. This is another fight that I expect to see a finish inside the distance and should be fun while it lasts.
The biggest betting favorite of this weekend is Mayra Bueno Silva, with a Moneyline around -500 at most sportsbooks in her matchup against Lina Lansberg. Beyond that outlier, the next biggest favorites of the card are Clayton Carpenter and Zac Pauga, whose Moneylines are hovering in the -300 range at most of the books. While I like all three of those fighters to get wins this weekend, there are actually two underdogs that I plan to place a couple of small bets on for Saturday that I like as much or more than those heavy favorites: Blanchfield and Miller.
Despite facing a step up in competition here, I think Blanchfield is more than prepared for the challenge and although Andrade is one of my favorite women’s MMA fighters, I think she will struggle here between the short notice and quick turnaround. Andrade just fought Lauren Murphy at UFC 283 last month and landed an insane 237 strikes. I’m not sure her hands have had time to heal up for another performance on that level, and Blanchfield absolutely has the skills to ground Andrade and wear her down if that striking and power isn’t there for Andrade.
Meanwhile, Miller will also have the benefit of getting an opponent on short notice and one who has a recent history of struggling beyond the first round. Despite so much mileage and fight time for Miller, he has been incredibly difficult to stop throughout his career and should be able to find more success as the fight progresses if Hernandez can’t find an early finish. I think there’s a solid chance Miller can get this one done and is worth a small sprinkle, but this isn’t a spot that I would recommend going heavily on.
With UFC 285 just over two weeks away, which will feature the return of Jon Jones as he moves up to a new division and attempts to win the vacant UFC Heavyweight title, I don’t plan to go too heavy with the bets during the next two events. I would much rather sprinkle and have some fun with these two and then really sink my teeth in on March 4th, which features a very solid lineup overall beyond the main event between Jones and Cyril Gane.