MMA — May 19, 2023

UFC Vegas 73: Dern vs Hill - Three Prop Bets Worth Checking Out

WagerWire Contributor
Dern vs Hill

After consecutive cards on the East Coast the past two weeks, the UFC returns to the Apex this weekend for UFC Vegas 73 which will be headlined by Mackenzie Dern and Angela Hill.

There are currently twelve fights scheduled to take place, and while this card isn’t exactly loaded with household names for most casual fans, there’s still a handful of fun fights and interesting betting spots that are worth checking out. Below are some of my favorite prop bets for this weekend:

Rodrigo Nascimento by KO/TKO or Points Double Chance (-135)

Nascimento is 9-1 with eight of his wins coming via stoppage and he’ll be facing 16-8 Ilir Latifi on this card. Nascimento will have massive 4” height and 7” reach advantages in this matchup and is ten years younger than his opponent.

Latifi’s recipe for victory as of late has been to take down his opponents and rack up control time, but that’s not going to be an easy task in this one considering the huge size difference and Nascimento having a 100% takedown defense thus far in the UFC.

Even if Latifi finds success getting this one to the ground, I don’t think he will be able to keep it there long. I expect this one to stay mostly on the feet, where Nascimento should be able to do enough damage to comfortably pick up the decision or potentially late stoppage. Latifi has never been submitted, however, four of his eight losses have come via KO/TKO.

Joaquin Buckley by KO/TKO (+120)

Buckley is 15-6 with eleven of his wins coming via KO/TKO and he’ll be dropping down to welterweight this weekend when he faces 16-6 Andre Fialho. Buckley is a pretty well-rounded fighter with a lot of power in his striking and the ability to change levels to take a fight to the ground when necessary.

Fialho packs a lot of power in his striking, however, his cardio has been a bit questionable in the past and his knockout threat significantly drops off after the opening round, while Buckley maintains his power and pressure throughout the fight with seven stops in the latter rounds.

Buckley should be able to avoid the early danger from Fialho and take over the fight rather quickly from there. Fialho has four of his six losses via KO/TKO, and there’s a pretty good chance Buckley adds to that count this week with a second or third-round stoppage.

Angela Hill by Decision (+210)

Hill is 15-12 with five of her wins coming via KO/TKO and she will be facing 12-3 Mackenzie Dern in this weekend’s main event. This fight was originally scheduled to take place last weekend but was pushed back and given two additional rounds as a result of being the headliner for this card.

Hill enters this fight on a two-fight winning streak and will be looking to avoid the obvious submission threat of Dern in this fight. Dern is one of the most dangerous submission artists in women’s MMA when she can get her opponents to the ground. However, she only has an 11% takedown accuracy in the UFC, which doesn’t bode well against 77% defense of Hill.

With only one stoppage for Dern coming after the opening round, I think Hill will avoid that early threat and be able to squeeze this one out via decision with h higher striking output. Hill is the betting underdog in this matchup, with her Moneyline currently sitting at +140.

Betting lines for this article are via FanDuel Sportsbook

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