UFC Vegas 75: Vettori vs Cannonier - Pick, Prediction & Favorite Prop Bets

Marvin Vettori and Jared Cannonier will be facing off in a matchup of highly-ranked middleweights on Saturday when they headline UFC Vegas 75. Both fighters have been staples in the middleweight division’s top five in recent years.and will be trying to retain their standing in the rankings with a win. Let’s take a look at how things might play out in this main event fight:

The Fighters

Vettori is 19-6-1 with eleven of his wins coming via stoppage and will be headlining his fifth UFC event. He has a 3-1 record in five-round main events with all four going the full 25 minutes and the only loss coming against UFC Middleweight champion Israel Adesanya. Vettori is a very well-rounded fighter who has solid striking volume and the ability to get a fight to the ground. He’s also extremely durable and has never been finished in his career.

Cannonier is 16-6 with twelve wins via stoppage and he will also be headlining his fifth event with the promotion. He has an identical 3-1 record in his main event opportunities with his lone loss also at the hands of Adesanya. Historically, Cannonier has been known for his knockout power with ten of his wins coming via that method. He’s also one of only two fighters in UFC history with knockouts in three different weight classes (Conor McGregor is the other).

Prediction

This should be a high-level and relatively even matchup between these two and I fully expect it to go the full 25 minutes. Despite both fighters having pretty solid finish rates overall in their careers, stopping 65.7% of their 35 combined wins, neither fighter is particularly prone to being stopped either. And while Cannonier is largely known for the power in his striking, it’s hard to see him finding a finish against Vettori in this one. Cannonier only has one stoppage in the past four years and Vettori has held up against some of the most dangerous strikers in the division. Also, only two out of Vettori’s 14 fights in the UFC have ended inside the distance, with most of his stoppage wins coming prior to joining the promotion.

The first two rounds of this fight will likely be relatively close, but this matchup should favor Vettori the longer it goes beyond that point. Vettori is ten years younger than Cannonier and I think he will be the fresher fighter down the stretch of this fight. Cannonier has been out-struck by four of his last five opponents and I think that will be the case here too. Vettori will likely look to switch levels in this fight and use a combination of takedowns and strike volume to wear down the cardio of Cannonier to pick up the victory via decision on the judges’ scorecards.

Pick: Marvin Vettori (-118)

Recommended Props: Vettori by Points (+130), Fight Goes the Distance: Yes (-166)

Current odds via FanDuel Sportsbook