After a month of fights on the road in front of crowds, we’re returning to the much smaller Apex this weekend for UFC Vegas 78. There are currently 13 fights scheduled for the event and it will be headlined by Vicente Luque and Rafael Dos Anjos in a welterweight matchup. Let’s take a look at some of the fighters and prop bets that might be worth a look on tomorrow’s card:
Da’Mon Blackshear by Submission (+175 DraftKings)
Blackshear is 13-5-1 with eight wins coming via submission and he will be making his fourth UFC appearance this weekend against promotional newcomer Josh Johnson. Blackshear is a pretty well-rounded fighter and particularly dangerous with his submissions. That could be bad for Johnson, who has suffered three of his seven career losses via that method. Furthermore, Johnson has shown terrible takedown defense during his two fights on Dana White’s Contender Series, surrendering 18 takedowns overall. I think Blackshear will be able to get this fight to the ground as he has in all three of his other UFC appearances and will catch Johnson for the sub.
Terrance McKinney by KO/TKO (+160 FanDuel)
McKinney is 13-6 with a 100% stoppage rate and has never been the distance in a fight. He’s looking to bounce back from a two-fight losing skid against Mike Breedan this weekend, and despite taking this fight on relatively short notice, McKinney has an excellent shot to get back on track. Breedan is 10-5 in his career while going 0-2 in the UFC thus far and he will be returning from a 16-month layoff for this fight. McKinney will have a 3.5” reach advantage and I expect him to find more success in the striking exchanges. McKinney will likely have a grappling advantage in this matchup as well, but I don’t think he’ll need it, and will find the early KO/TKO.
Vicente Luque in R4/R5/Decision (+320 FanDuel)
Luque is 21-9-1 with 19 of those wins coming via stoppage and he will be returning from a yearlong layoff to face Rafael Dos Anjos in the main event of this weekend’s card. Both of these fighters are longtime veterans of the UFC, and although Luque is trying to bounce back from back-to-back losses, I think he’ll be able to get the better of RDA in this matchup. Luque will be seven years younger and will have 3” height and 6” reach advantages to work with and I expect him to cause more damage in the striking exchanges. With both fighters being pretty durable in the early rounds, I think this one goes late and I’ll give the nod to Luque by decision or late stop.
