The octagon is returning to the Apex this weekend for UFC Vegas 79 to end the promotion’s run of 17 consecutive weekends with an event. There are currently 11 bouts scheduled for the card and the event will be headlined by a matchup between lightweight contenders Rafael Fiziev and Mateusz Gamrot. Let’s take a look at both fighters and how this one could potentially play out:
Rafael Fiziev is 12-2 with nine wins via stoppage and he will be trying to bounce back in this one from a close split decision loss to Justin Gaethje back at UFC 286. Prior to that loss, Fiziev had won six straight fights with several wins over ranked competition in the division. He is an extremely talented striker who mixes his weapons well and is particularly dangerous with his kicks. While Fiziev doesn’t use a lot of offensive wrestling or grappling in his fights, he has shown great takedown defense thus far in the UFC, successfully defending them at a 90% clip.
Mateusz Gamrot is 22-2 with 12 wins coming via finish and he has never been stopped in his losses. Gamrot is 5-2 thus far in the UFC and enters this matchup off a narrow split decision victory over Jalin Turner at UFC 285 back in March. Gamrot is a high-volume wrestler who consistently chases takedowns and looks to take fights to the ground whenever possible. While he’s known primarily for his takedowns, averaging 4.54 of them per 15 minutes in the UFC thus far, Gamrot also has decent striking and can hold his own on the feet in most situations.
This fight is pretty much the exact definition of a “striker vs grappler” matchup. Fiziev will primarily be trying to work his striking and stay upright in this one, while Gamrot will likely be attempting to land takedowns and keep things on the ground when possible. Normally in these situations, I tend to lean towards the grappler. However, Fiziev proved in his fight with RDA last year that he can defend a high number of takedowns across five rounds as he successfully defended 14 out of 16 attempts from dos Anjos. If Gamrot can’t land his takedowns and/or control Fiziev on the ground, I think he’s going to be in trouble in this matchup. While Gamrot has never been finished, he has been knocked down in three consecutive fights and in four of his seven with the promotion. Fiziev will be landing the harder, more damaging strikes in the exchanges on the feet, and if he can avoid getting controlled on the ground for long stretches, I think there’s a clear path for him to pick up a decision or late KO/TKO stoppage here.
As far as betting on this fight, the money line for Fiziev is currently sitting around -155 to -165 depending on the sportsbook you are using. I think that’s a pretty fair line for this one, but there’s also a couple more plays that I like for this fight. Since neither fighter is particularly prone to being stopped, the overs on the rounds or fight to go the distance are pretty solid spots to look at. You can also consider playing Fiziev to win in the latter rounds or via decision for +180 on FanDuel Sportsbook.