As part of a new series that I recently started for UFC events here at WagerWire, I’ll be writing a feature that shines a spotlight on one fighter for each card who I feel deserves a little bit of extra time in the limelight during their fight week for one reason or another.
For this week’s feature, I will be shining the spotlight on Jailton Almeida, who is scheduled to fight Shamil Abdurakhimov this weekend at UFC 283 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This will be Almeida’s fourth fight with the promotion and he will enter the octagon Saturday night on a 12-fight winning streak overall.
Almeida, who is nicknamed “Malhadinho”, has a career record of 17–2 as a professional with a 100% finish rate (six knockouts and eleven submissions). All seventeen of his finishes have come inside the first two rounds, with thirteen of them coming during the opening round.
Since arriving on the scene in the UFC, Almeida has put together an impressive 3–0 start while flip-flopping between the heavyweight and light heavyweight divisions. His fight this weekend against Abdurakhimov will take place at heavyweight, and according to Almeida, that is the division he intends to focus on for the foreseeable future.
During his impressive start with the promotion, Almeida has finished all three of his opponents in the opening round while outstriking them by a combined total of 65 to 1 with a 6:0 takedown ratio. According to UFC Stats, he lands 3.56 strikes per minute while only absorbing 0.43 strikes in return during the same timeframe.
Almeida also boasts a takedown rate of 7.18 takedowns per 15 minutes and he lands them at 75% accuracy.
As you can see from this career statistical comparison by Nate Latshaw, Almeida will have an absolutely dominant advantage in the takedowns and control rate. And while his Distance % and Strike Defense might appear low, keep in mind that Almeida is constantly pressuring his opponents as opposed to creating distance and he hasn’t had to defend very many strikes yet in the UFC to display his defensive abilities.
Five of Almeida’s past six victories have come via submission, with four of them coming by rear-naked choke. While a majority of his wins have been via that method, Almeida will often work his ground and pound first and then attempt to force his opposition into bad positions to set up his submission attempts.
This weekend at UFC 283 will actually be the third time this matchup has been booked by the promotion, with Abdurakhimov withdrawing the previous two times. Abdurakhimov is 20–7 as a pro and has gone 5–5 during his time with the UFC. He is coming off three consecutive knockout losses inside the octagon.
As I mentioned in my preview for UFC 283, Almeida is currently the biggest betting favorite on this lineup, with his Moneyline hovering between -900 and -1100 depending which sportsbook you are using.
At FanDuel, where the prop markets have started to open for this event, Almeida Inside the Distance is -800 and Fight Does Not Go the Distance is -1600, meaning you really have to dive deep on this one for some solid value.
The best way to approach these situations in my opinion is to look at the method and round props for the fight. As of right now, FanDuel has the following odds listed for Almeida’s victory methods: Submission -150, KO/TKO +200, and Decision +1100.