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MLB — 3/28/23

WagerWire Futures Forecast: 3 Picks for MLB Strikeout Leaders, Regular Season

By 
@SpoonOfZeke
WagerWire Contributor
Justin Verlander New York Mets

The MLB season is upon us with Opening Day coming within the week, so it’s the perfect time to predict who will lead the league in strikeouts at the end of the season! While checking out DraftKings Sportsbook for some future bets, here are 3 pitchers in the league I’m taking to lead the MLB in strikeouts.

NYY Gerritt Cole (+550)

Last year’s strikeout leader is the DraftKings favorite to lead the league at +550. With pacing the entire MLB in strikeouts two out of the last three full seasons, Cole would be considered the “safe” pick.

On Baseball Savant, Cole’s ENTIRE pitching repertoire has increased in Whiff percentage from 2021 to 2022. That means batters are not touching Cole’s pitches when they swing which is pretty important when racking up the strikeouts.

Now you might think, “Get out of here with the fancy numbers!” so here are the basic numbers, Coles has started over 31+ games, and the best ability is availability! Frankie Montas, Carlos Rodón, and Luis Severino are starting the season on the IL, so the Yankees are going to lean on him early to start and give strong innings.

CWS Dylan Cease (+1000)

Cease and Desist has become the next loved pitcher in Chicago for the White Sox. He’s a great dark-horse pick to lead the league with his wipeout Slider.

While Cease in the last two seasons has had near identical strikeout totals (226 and 227), if Coles misses any time, Cease could sneak into the lead. 

It’s weird to say this, but the AL Central seems… less daunting than other divisions? I’m not sure what the word is but the line-up doesn’t exactly invoke fear. More like a player to fear per team. That’s a perfect environment for a fan-charged, up-and-coming pitcher to increase some numbers.

NYM Justin Verlander (+3000)

Verlander is considered a mainstay in the upper echelon of pitchers in today’s game. He won an AL Cy Young last year with Houston and then signed a big deal with the Mets.

But his last Cy Young campaign was… different compared to his normal season. His last two full seasons before 2022 were 2018 and 2019, he threw for 290 and 300 strikeouts in those two years. In 2022, he only threw 185 strikeouts.

His Fastball Whiff percentage dropped HEAVILY from 2019 to 2022, showing he wasn’t using his fastball to put away batters anymore. He might have been nervous about his arm in terms of pitch selection, becoming a more finesse pitcher than a power pitcher as he was previously.

There could be hope for Verlander to recapture his strikeout ways becoming more comfortable with the finesse path of pitching and that sequencing. If that happens and he gives another full season, 300 strikeouts might be right back on for him.