After 18 weeks of pandemonium, hot takes, incompetent officiating, laterals that would get a pop warner player cut, and more Scott Hansen than our eardrums thought they could handle we have finally arrived at the postseason. When the games truly count, the stars shine brightest, and Mac Jones can whine from the comfort of his own home. When you look at the bracket, you really can’t help but wonder what the point of all the stress and craziness we just subjected ourselves to over the past 4 months. Was there ever really a question that Allen, Mahomes, and Burrow wouldn’t own the top 3 spots in the AFC? The NFC got interesting for a minute, but it seems the Niners Eagles and (I guess)Vikings have stood above the rest for a while now. If they only got in, the Lions would have made some noise, but sadly for them, starting 1–5 actually does mean something. That is not the case if you play in either conference South division, where the Jags and Bucs backed their way into the postseason thanks to so much incompetence around them. I would talk about the Giants and the Seahawks, two incredibly good stories, but I will save those for an article that isn’t about championship contenders. The Chargers might have the talent to make a run, but treating a ‘Super’ Wild Card Weekend game like a game of Madden is a bit more dangerous than the stakes Brandon Staley is used to playing on. These bolts might be in trouble down in Duval County round 1. If the Ravens and Dolphins had their QBs healthy, I could bang out an argument for both of them, but neither looks on track to play so let’s not waste our breath. And if you want to be the one to back the Cowboys, after the way they looked in Washington Sunday afternoon, than I will leave you on that island. Give me TB12 to send Jerry’s bunch packing, before he sees himself out just a week later. Where does all this leave us? In a league filled with parity and unpredictability, this year just seemed so predictable. Unfortunately, my betting record doesn’t agree. With that said,I am looking at 5 teams with a realistic chance to raise the Lombardi trophy; 3 in the AFC and 2 in the NFC. I really wanted more symmetry but I start laughing every time I try to make a case for the Minnesota Vikings franchise to make a Super Bowl. These are your true contenders, starting with the AFC:

Buffalo Bills — Ever since this team showed they couldn’t stop a scoring drive with 13 seconds on the clock, Vegas has pegged this team a front runner to reach Arizona. After the incredibly scary incident turned feel good Damar Hamlin story, the Bills have added a little ‘team of destiny’ feel to their side. And if you somehow haven’t heard about that, you likely also don’t know that Donald Trump served as President, and Elon Musk bought twitter. I would say that the opening kickoff return TD against New England showed the power of having fate on your side, but the second one of the day showed the power of playing against an incompetent opponent can be even bigger. Of which there aren’t any in the playoffs, and the Bills certainly need to get some things cleaned up on defense. They have not been as good on that side of the ball at the end of the year, and while a lot of it can be masked with Josh Allen, they still run the risk of not having the last possession of a ballgame. Despite a few regular season slip-ups, they actually haven’t lost a game with safety Jordan Poyer on the field, and Allen and this offense don’t need the 85 Bears on their side. With Home field until a potential neutral site AFC Champ game which would happen against a Chiefs team they knocked off earlier this year, this team deserves to be the favorite going into the AFC Playoff race, and that is just where I have em.

Cincinnati Bengals — With all the talk about the Mahomes and Allen battle, and the two top seeds in the conference, people seem to forget that the Bengals were the AFC representatives last season, and have gotten better since. After an 0–2 start had the Super Bowl Hangover crowd alert, Cinci has ripped off 8 in a row including a 4th straight win over KC. While tragedy struck in the Buffalo game and they couldn’t finish it, the Bengals looked pretty damn strong in the early going. We all know Joe Burrow is that dude, and there is no one more sure of that fact than Joe Burrow himself. He oozes confidence, and he backs it the hell up. In his last 3 seasons of football, he went NCAA Championship, Torn ACL, AFC Championship. That’s not a guy you want to wager against in big time spots. With the questions surrounding the back end of both Buffalo and Kansas Cities defenses, look no further than Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins who have the potential to expose even the games top secondaries. Burrow has the pocket presence and mobility to mask a mediocre O-Line, and this team has a better run game than either of their primary counterparts in conference. At +750, this is a Super Bowl Ticket I am looking to jump on before they dispose of Baltimore in Round 1 and set up a showdown with the Aforementioned Bills.

WagerWire

And coming in at #3, despite being the number 1 overall seed in the conference are your Kansas City Chiefs. I understand the Chiefs are a great football team, and Patrick Mahomes is still the top dog in the NFL. However, if you know ball, you know that defense and running the football can be of some importance in January. The Chiefs tend to not do either of those things spectacularly well, despite how it might look against the Las Vegas Raiders. Mahomes can hide a ton of flaws, but we saw them get exposed in the Super Bowl in Tampa, and we saw Cinci take it to them in the second half of last years AFCGC. The Patrick Mahomes to Kelce connection is outstanding, but is that going to be enough to make it out? For years we have seen Andy Reids offenses dazzle, and with the exception of that once, for years we have seen his teams fall short on the biggest stage. I believe it is because they get too one dimensional and Mahomes can be asked to do too much.. Zac Taylor and the Bengals have the recipe, and I think Buffalo has the recipe as well, to win a matchup that would be played at a neutral site. The Chiefs could easily prove me wrong and run the table, but as the short favorite at +325, I am laying off the Big Red Machine.

Pretenders aside, here is a dope graphic showing the season long value of a $100 AFC Championship future on each of these three contenders:

On the other side, while it might be foolish to bet against Brady, the Cowboys are long overdue, and the Vikings can score against anyone, I firmly believe the NFC is a two horse race.

The top team in the conference to me is the SF 49ers, led by rookie Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy. This team is so good all over the field, that it might not matter who is behind center, even though Purdy has proven to be more than capable. He continues to get no respect from opposing defenses, and all he does is pick teams apart on his way to 30+ points per game. The talent around him is extraordinary. It reminds me of that viral video from that high school football team earlier this year…Christian McCaffrey? Dog. George Kittle? Dog. Deebo Samuel? Dog. Brandon Ayuk? Dog. Kyle Juszcek? Dog. This team truly is a bunch of DOGS, and those are only weapons they possess on offense! Don’t yet forget they also have THE best defense in football led by the best defensive player in football, Nick Bosa. It’s an embarrassment of riches that Kyle Shannahan has, and he has been here enough times to know what it takes to get over the hump. Whether its Jimmy G coming back or Purdy continuing to roll, this is the team to beat in the NFC going in. I think they will handle Seattle, roll over Minnesota, and then set up a showdown with the other contender in this conference. +200 to win the NFC currently is ok, but please don’t forget that I told you to grab them at +1000 in Week 2 after Lance went down.

That other contender has been the conference’s best team all season long, the Philadelphia Eagles. With just 1 loss before Jalen Hurts went down with a shoulder injury, Philly did enough to maintain the #1 overall seed, while hopefully giving their QB enough time to heal up. The Birds rolled all year, with AJ Brown and Devonta Smith making up a top tier WR core, and a spread offense led by their dual threat QB that was nearly impossible to contain. Doubters questioned Hurts all year and if he was a good enough passer to keep this team rolling. When healthy, the answer is clearly yes. The problem is that right shoulder injuries are not ideal for right handed quarterbacks, especially those that like to take off and run and occasionally dish out some of their own punishment. Taking that option away from Jalen will be tough, and play into the hands of opponents who will look for him to prove his ability as a pure pocket passer. Getting the bye week is huge, as Hurts isn’t the only one the Eagles are looking to get healthy for this run, and staying at home in rowdy Philadelphia throughout will help as well. As good as the offense has been, they have a defense to match. Their defensive line is tough to run against, and they can rush the passer too. It’s the time of year where it helps to have numerous ways to win ball games, and the Eagles certainly have that ability. The talent on their team is only second to San Francisco, and I can’t wait to see those two teams go at it in what will be an epic NFC Championship game on Jan 29.

A similar chart showing the value of an NFC Championship future ticket, for the top 3 seeds.