Significant Rule Change
You need to know this if you are betting this season, especially on totals. College football has now changed to a running clock on first downs, except in the last 2 minutes of each half. Previously, the clock would stop when a team achieved a first down regardless of inbounds, etc. Now the clock will continue to run. This should in theory result in fewer plays. People are estimating that this will result in 2.5-3 (some are finalizing on 2.8) less points per game. Keep note of this and see how books adjust. The unders in week 0 and 1 tend to be a good play in general. I am looking to back unders more aggressively to start the year this year.
Line Shopping
If you bet and aren’t line shopping, I don’t know what you are doing. Even if it’s laying -105 instead of -115. That’s $1 per $10 you bet. This adds up. But you also want to get the best of the number. I can’t tell you how many bets have been one and lost by ½ or 1 points. For instance, right now in the Utah vs Florida game, you can get Utah -4.5 at Fanduel or Florida +5.5 at DraftKings. If you bet Utah -5.5 you are foolish. Professionals look to create arbitrage like this. I use Oddstrader.com to get a glimpse of what prices each books are offering. I use 6 books in my state. If you want to see all of the books available to you at your state, Download WagerWire.
Onto the Games Week 0
Navy vs Notre Dame
Irish -20.5 -21
Total 49-49.5
In the first game of the season the “marquee” matchup will be played in Dublin Ireland. Notre Dame brings in Sam Hartman who played extremely well in Wake Forest before transferring. Pros have attacked the under in this game and have dropped the total from 50.5 to 49 in some shops. The weather calls for rain and some sloppy field play. I am playing the under and don’t have a strong opinion on the side. Let’s quickly rewind to last years result in which ND won 35-32. Notre Dame was outscored 19-0 in the 2nd half and were held to just 20 total yards. If Navy can do something similar, paired with their offensive style, this could be a lower scoring game this time. And may be closer than the point spread would indicate. Keep in mind the general public bias towards Notre Dame.
San Jose State vs USC
Usc -31
Total 66
Your heisman favorite, Caleb Willaims, takes on a decent QB in Chevan Cordeiro. Cordeiro can move and if USC’s defense is anything like last years, he can give them some problems. Most of the money and bets are on USC and the over as expected, with almost dead even splits. No angle there. I don’t see much I like to wager on this one. I expect a lot of points, but this number is starting to get too inflated.
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