Welcome to the long awaited first week of the NFL. The normal 1st article of the week will be a quick recap on the previous week’s action and an analysis of the opening lines and predictions where the numbers may go. This week we don’t have any games to recap, and most of the lines have been fine tuned all summer. You won’t see much line movement unless news breaks or an injury like we saw with Travis Kelce and the Chiefs who went from a -6.5 favorite down to a 4.5 or 5 point favorite on Thursday vs the Lions.
What I mean by lines baked in. Pittsburgh +3 was a great bet a few weeks ago at home vs San Francisco. But this line has moved over the past few weeks with money coming in. If you want to bet Pittsburgh now, the line is +2 or +2.5. That’s not so good especially around a key number of 3.
Numbers always matter, but they really do matter in the NFL. This is the sharpest market there is and difficult to beat. I even use services to try and get the best of the numbers. If you can catch a -3 instead of -3.5 it can make all the difference in the world.
Rookie QBs
Rookie QBs don’t seem to cut it against the spread, especially in the beginning of the season. In the last 17 games weeks 1-3, rookie starters are 1-15-1 straight up and 4-13 against the spread. Games have also gone under in 20 of the last 25 starts. Qualifying bets for this if you just blindly wanted to take them, Atlanta -3.5. Baltimore -10. Jacksonville -4.5 This would also be under 39.5 Atl/Car, under 44 Balt/Hou, and under 45.5 Jax/Indy. I don’t necessarily support all of these plays, but you are at least “pissing with the wind” if you were.
QBs that did not play in the Preseason
Teams that did not have the quarterback play at all in preseason tend to struggle. Last year they went 3-8 in week 1. Since 2016 they are averaging going under their team total by over 5 points. With this trend you have a few ways to go about attacking. 1. Playing the under in the game. 2. Backing the other side. 3. Playing the team total points under.
The teams that I did not see any stats on the starting QB having stats this preseason:
Bengals and Joe Burrow
Titans and Ryan Tannehill
Ravens and Lamar Jackson
LA Chargers and Justin Herbert
Jaguars and Trevor Lawerence
Eagles and Jalen Hurts
Lions and Jared Goff
Cowboys and Dak Prescott
Vikings and Kirk Cousins
Unders Week 1
The trend tends to be unders in week 1. The under was 11-5 last season. Since 2021, the under is 63%. Since 2000 it is 194-167 (54%)
Underdogs are a good bet in Week 1
Underdogs in general are 53% against the spread since 2000. This makes sense since the public loves betting favorites. Large underdogs of 5-10 points tend to do even better especially since 2011. Since 2011 dogs of 5-10 points are 41-32, since 2015, 28-20, since 2018, 21-15, and in 2023 they went 7-2.
Qualifying wagers would be:
TB Bucs +6 vs Minnesota
AZ Cardinals +7 vs Washington
Houston Texans +10 vs Baltimore
LA Rams +5.5 vs Seattle
Teasers
One of the more profitable bets in the NFL are wong teasers. If you don’t know what a teaser is, please look that up. If you don’t know what a wong teaser, here is a quick lesson. A wong teaser goes through two of the biggest key numbers in football, the 7 and 3. If you can tease a favorite down from say -7.5 to -1.5 or an underdog from +2.5 to +8.5, these are advantage teasers that have a very successful track record.
Teams that would qualify to be apart of these teasers:
Cleveland +2.5 to +8.5 vs Cincy
Pittsburgh +2.5 to +8.5 vs San Fran
Washington -7 to -1 vs Washington
Green Bay +1.5 to +7.5 vs Chicago
NY Jets +2.5 to +8.5 vs Buffalo
If anyone is interested in learning more or for me to do an article/video on this subject, please feel free to reach out to me @SportsBetSplits on twitter
Follow me on wagerwire and download the app: Sign up for Sportsbooks and receive exclusive bonuses if you have not tried all of the books in your state.
One simple process will create an account at all of the books in your area. Sign up today using SPORTSBETSPLITS as the referral code. https://i58wy.app.link/7PMYs1r3yBb