ESPN’s Shams Charania reported today that “Two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo is ready for a new home at the Feb. 5 NBA trade deadline or in the offseason as several rival teams make aggressive offers to the Milwaukee Bucks, and the franchise is starting to listen, league sources tell ESPN.”
That single report sent shockwaves through the league, sports betting industry and, absolutely nuked the Bucks in the future odds markets. Milwaukee’s season is effectively over, according to the sportsbooks. The Bucks have fallen all the way to +100,000 to win the NBA Finals at several major books. For context, they opened the season at +5500 on BetMGM. A brutal beat for anyone still holding Bucks futures.
With Giannis potentially on the move, the entire NBA landscape could shift. Let’s dive into the three most likely landing spots based on Kalshi odds, which currently list the New York Knicks, Golden State Warriors, and Miami Heat as the frontrunners.
New York Knicks
20% chance per Kalshi +1600 to win NBA Finals (FanDuel)
The Knicks are the most talked-about Giannis destination, and they have been for a couple of years. It’s been widely rumored that Giannis and his wife love the idea of New York City, and the Knicks finally have the assets to make a legitimate offer.
A pairing of Giannis and Jalen Brunson would raise some stylistic questions, but the upside is undeniable. If New York can center a deal around Karl-Anthony Towns, draft capital, and rotational pieces, this instantly turns the Knicks into a league favorite outside of the Thunder.
The immediate movement in the Knicks’ title odds following the Giannis report suggests that Vegas is aligned with Kalshi’s projections, viewing New York as the most likely landing spot should a trade materialize. It moved from +1900 to +1600 on Fanduel today
Golden State Warriors
13% chance per Kalshi +20000 to win NBA Finals (BetMGM)
This is the dream fit.
Giannis in Golden State’s five-out system would be basketball poetry. His rim pressure, combined with Steph Curry’s off-ball gravity, would be an absolute nightmare for defenses. Either Giannis gets endless free rim runs, or Curry and the shooters get clean looks. A true pick your poison approach.
Personally, this is my favorite basketball fit of the three. The spacing, pace, and playing with Curry, Steve Kerr’s system could unlock some of the most efficient Giannis basketball we’ve ever seen. The basketball world should hope this happens, as Curry deserves another chance at a ring.
Miami Heat
10% chance per Kalshi +8000 to win NBA Finals (DraftKings)
Miami is never far from superstar rumors, and Giannis would be no exception.
A Giannis/Bam Adebayo frontcourt would be terrifying defensively, though spacing could be a concern. Still, the Heat’s defensive versatility would be elite, and if Miami can keep Tyler Herro, the offensive balance becomes much more interesting.
As always, if Pat Riley is involved, nothing can be ruled out.
