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WNBA — 9/12/25

Who Has the Best Shot at the 2025 WNBA Championship?

By 
drew
WagerWire Contributor
Odds Based Chances of Winning a WNBA Title

1. Minnesota Lynx – The Season’s Dominant Force

  • Top Seed & Home-Court Advantage: The Minnesota Lynx secured the No. 1 seed with a league best 33–9 record, locking in home court throughout the playoffs. CBSSports.comESPN.com
  • Championship Favorites: Sportsbooks have them as the frontrunners, odds range from +120 (DraftKings) to +155 (ESPN BET). WNBAESPN.com+1
  • Balanced Excellence: Anchored by MVP-caliber Napheesa Collier, the Lynx boast elite offensive and defensive metrics and impressive playoff poise. Swish Appeal+1Wikipedia

2. Las Vegas Aces – Red-Hot Momentum

  • Unstoppable Run: The Aces have surged with a remarkable 14-game win streak, one of the most dramatic midseason turnarounds in WNBA history. Swish AppealESPN.com
  • Power Rankings Rise: Recent ESPN rankings now place the Aces above the Lynx for the moment, thanks to their current form. ESPN.com
  • A’ja Wilson at the Helm: The two-time MVP continues to be a force on both ends of the floor, averaging 23.6 PPG and 2.2 blocks per game. Swish Appeal

3. New York Liberty – Defending Champions Battling Back

  • Second Favorites: While they began the season as odds-on favorites, they've slipped slightly behind Minnesota (+160–170). FOX SportsESPN.com+1
  • Health Is Key: Injuries have disrupted their rhythm this season. When the core trio, Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, is healthy, they’re formidable (11–2 together). New York PostNetsDaily
  • X-Factor Depth: Role players like Leonie Fiebich, Kennedy Burke, and Natasha Cloud have stepped up, offering hope for a deep playoff run. New York Post+1

4. Phoenix Mercury – All-Around Grit & Entertainment

  • Strong Seed & Stats: Phoenix holds a solid playoff seed with standout contributions from Alyssa Thomas, 15.8 PPG, 8.9 RPG, and a league-leading 9.2 APG. Swish AppealBright Side Of The Sun
  • Triple-Double Machine: Thomas recently recorded seven triple-doubles this season, reinforcing her MVP credentials. Swish AppealBright Side Of The Sun
  • Fan Energy Rising: The Mercury have become a headline act in the Valley, drawing growing attention and support. Bright Side Of The Sun

5. Wildcard Entrants: Atlanta Dream & Golden State Valkyries

  • Atlanta Dream: Clinched a playoff spot and remained competitive, though not yet considered among the elite contenders. CBSSports.comESPN.com
  • Golden State Valkyries: As a first-year expansion team, they defied expectations by making the playoffs. With players like Laeticia Amihere shining off the bench, they have underdog intrigue. Raptors HQESPN.com

Final Analysis

Right now, the Minnesota Lynx stand out as the likeliest champion, supported by both their regular-season dominance and betting odds. However, the Las Vegas Aces, with their red-hot form, are legitimate and rising challengers. The Liberty still carry championship DNA if they can recapture full cohesion. Meanwhile, the Phoenix Mercury offer exciting versatility, and teams like Atlanta and Golden State might surprise if momentum meets opportunity.

As playoffs begin on September 14, expect intense matchups backed by star power and strategic depth, from Collier and Wilson to Ionescu and Thomas.

By Drew Lee | September 12, 2025