Will Patrick Mahomes lead the NFL in passing touchdowns in 2024?

Yes, your interest-free investment won’t pay off for months, but the wait could be worth it. With the 2024 NFL regular season about to commence, where should gamblers stack their greenbacks in the season-long props market? Here are my initial thoughts on a buyable option tied to an all-world QB.

The pick — Patrick Mahomes most passing touchdowns in NFL (+650, Caesars)

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If the heads of NFL legends replaced political dignitaries on our nation’s currency, Patrick Mahomes would be a front-runner for the $100 bill.

Though not nearly the hard partier Ben Franklin was, the Founding Father and two-time league MVP irrevocably share something in common — inventiveness.

Franklin is famously remembered for the kite and key. Mahomes is known for his ingenious arm slots and impromptu creativity — whether in the pocket or on the move — that have helped the Chiefs win three Super Bowl titles. His utterly bananas behind-the-back pass to Travis Kelce last Saturday was the latest evidence of his unscripted powers.

Though Mahomes and Kansas City finished the 2023 season on top of the world, the revered passer suffered — by his lofty standards — a profitless season in statistical terms. On the surface, his 4,183 passing yards and 27 passing touchdowns over 16 games were the second-lowest totals in his storied career. Worst yet, he established a new career high in interceptions with 14.

Despite the superficial downturn, Mahomes' underlying data suggests the final numbers were anomalous. On the season, he finished No. 3 in total passing attempts (37.3 per game), No. 4 in adjusted completion percentage (78.4), No. 4 in catchable target rate, No. 3 in red-zone attempts (6.2 per game), No. 8 in red-zone completion percentage and No. 10 in total EPA.

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Blame the inexperienced ensigns and not the ship captain. Excluding Mr. Taylor Swift and later in the year Rashee Rice, the Chiefs’ vertical weapons were terribly inconsistent.

With the additions of Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown, a return to 35-40 passing touchdowns might be underselling Mahomes in 2024. Brown is expected to miss a few regular-season games with a sternoclavicular joint injury, but the quarterback’s opportunity is ripe for a major rebound.

Unbelievably, Mahomes has the sixth-easiest projected strength of schedule for fantasy QBs. Behind an offensive line widely believed to be a top-10 pass-blocking unit, he should routinely shred secondaries. K.C.’s average defense only solidifies the bounce-back numbers belief.

Dak Prescott, C.J. Stroud and Joe Burrow are strong contenders, but this gambler is all about a generational talent, who’s still only 28, taking the cake in passing touchdowns. It’s a long-term investment, sure, but backer patience could be rewarded — and handsomely.

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