Since Serena Williams won her last Wimbledon title in 2016, the tournament has had a different women’s champion. Of the winners during that stretch, only Elena Rybakina ranks among the top-three favorites for the 2024 title. Such parity makes it incredibly difficult to pick a winner this year.

The women’s draw really is a crapshoot. Aryna Sabalenka, the third seed and world No. 3, is the favorite at two sportsbooks (+333 at BetMGM, +320 at DraftKings) over the world’s No. 1-ranked player — Iga Swiatek, the top seed who’s listed at +370 (DraftKings and FanDuel) — even though Sabalenka admittedly is “not 100%” due to a shoulder injury.

Rybakina, the fourth seed, is the consensus No. 3 favorite (+500 to +650). No. 2 seed Coco Gauff has the fourth-best odds (+700 to +750) but has never advanced past the fourth round. Defending champion Marketa Vondrousova (+4000 to +5000) is a long shot to repeat.

Guarantees don’t exist in sports wagering, but the Wimbledon men’s singles draw makes it much easier to predict a champion.

The pick — Jannik Sinner to win Wimbledon men’s singles (+175, Caesars)

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Just as the French Open served as the coronation for Carlos Alcaraz as the new king of clay from Spain, this year’s Wimbledon should be a showcase for Sinner to shine as the new world No. 1.

The 22-year-old Italian gained the top spot after losing to Alcaraz in the semifinals at Roland Garros in late May. Sinner prepared for Wimbledon by winning a grass-court tuneup in Germany, and that form and some unfinished business with Alcaraz have made him the betting favorite ahead of defending champion Alcaraz (+250 at DraftKings) and seven-time winner Novak Djokovic (+400 at BetMGM), who’s making a surprisingly quick comeback from knee surgery.

Sinner could get tested early. Matteo Berrettini, a 2021 Wimbledon finalist, looms as a potential second-round obstacle, and he’s such a threat on grass that he’s drawing the same title odds as 2023 semifinalist Daniil Medvedev at some sportsbooks. If the Italians meet, though, Sinner should get past the 59th-ranked Berrettini.

Likely waiting for Sinner in the semifinals will be the third-seeded Alcaraz. The future faces of men’s tennis have met just once on grass — at Wimbledon in 2022, when Sinner prevailed in four sets. Sinner will avenge his French Open semifinal defeat to Alcaraz and then complete a dominant fortnight at the All England Club with his second major title.

Tennis record: 3-1, +1.57 units