WNBA best bet: Seattle Storm at Washington Mystics
It feels great to have WNBA basketball back. I love the Olympics and all, but there’s something about the regular-season betting grind that really gets me going.
It’s either that, or it’s this coffee I’m drinking on an empty stomach.
Anyway, let’s get back into the swing of things with a fun spot in the WNBA on Tuesday night.
The pick — Seattle Storm -6.5 at Washington Mystics (-112, Caesars)
Few teams are having a bigger “straight-up not having a good time” moment than the Storm. They’ve come out of the Olympic break flatter than an Iowa highway and have paid the price with two defeats.
What better way to right the ship than by facing one of the WNBA’s worst teams?
Seattle ranked among the league’s top teams in mid-July, leading the WNBA in net rating for that month. Currently in August — and I know it’s a very small sample size — the Storm are eighth in net rating.
You know what this means?
(Sung to the tune of “Tradition” from “Fiddler on the Roof”) ... Regression! Regression!
I expect positive regression from a Storm squad with some of the league’s best players. They’re better than the team that has shown up in their last two games. They’re coming off a blowout loss against the Fever in Indianapolis, where Caitlin Clark broke the rookie season assist record and Seattle shot a dismal 38.9% from the field.
Facing a bottom-five defensive team like the Mystics will help Seattle find its shot and regain its confidence. The Storm’s defensive rating also has been porous since the Olympic break, sitting at 105.4 compared to their usual 94.8. Going up against an offensively challenged team like Washington — with an 89.9 offensive rating that is dead last in the league since the break — should be the perfect opportunity for Seattle to get back on track.
Despite their recent struggles, the Storm have a favorable matchup against the Mystics. With regression numbers on Seattle’s side and the opportunity to face a weaker team, I’m confident in laying the 6 1/2 points in a game where the Storm can win by double digits.
WNBA season record: 10-8, +1.02 units
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