WNBA Prop Bets: Sabrina Ionescu, Liberty vs. Sparks:
Thanks to the influx of extraordinary young talent, the popularity of the WNBA is blowing up. Unsurprisingly, the betting markets are too. Showing respect to the wonderful women’s game, this gambler will occasionally dip his toe in the WNBA wagering waters.
The pick — SGP: Sabrina Ionescu 25+ points plus rebounds plus assists, Liberty -10.5, Liberty 85+ points vs. Sparks (+100, BetMGM)
The Liberty own the WNBA’s second-easiest remaining strength of schedule and feature a loaded roster, so it’s no surprise they’re one of the top title contenders again. Though the franchise has never won the league championship, the drought could end this year. At No. 3 in net efficiency overall, Sandy Brondello’s bunch aims to blaze a fiery reason-or-season trail with a second-straight 30-win season.
How will New York fare against a Sparks squad that is 1-7 in road matchups this year? Here’s a breakdown of SGP legs for Thursday’s matchup at Barclays Center.
Sabrina Ionescu 25+ points plus rebounds plus assists. As discussed earlier this week, the former Oregon Duck is the hunter and not the hunted. She’s a supreme stat sheet stuffer who scores at will, aggressively rebounds and efficiently distributes. In seven games this month, Ionescu is averaging 18.1 points, 5.3 rebounds and 6.9 assists per game. This numbskull is no Einstein, but simple arithmetic says the 30.3 PRA June average is well past the 25-plus that’s needed. I'm a friggin' genius. Throw in the Sparks’ middle-of-the-pack averages in rebounds, assists and opponent points allowed, and they only support the achievement being reached.
Liberty -10.5 alt spread. Taking the line down from -15.5 makes it all the more buyable. In its six home contests this season, New York has covered the 10.5 number three times. It’s not the most encouraging trend, but with a decisive +18.9 net efficiency advantage over the Sparks, the Liberty should triumph in convincing fashion -- especially with L.A.'s Cameron Brink out for the season.
Liberty 85+ points scored. Correlate, synergize and bring it all together. If Ionescu has another stellar across-the-board effort and New York prevails by 11 points or more, chances are scoring will be plentiful. One of the faster-paced teams in the W, the Liberty have produced 85 points or more in 60% of their games this year. The league’s No. 1 team in offensive rating (107.1 points per 100 possessions) skewers a below-average Sparks defensive team.
WNBA season record: 5-5, +1.15 units
