The WNBA’s has seen an unprecedented surge in viewership. With sophomores Angel Reese and Caitlin Clark electrifying fans and dictating social media algorithms, sportsbooks are cashing in, especially in the first few possessions of a game.

First player to score props have quietly taken the WNBA betting market by storm. The flashy odds (+300 for Clark, +400 for Wilson) feel tempting–but, with some fans chasing this payout, others have found immense success betting the flipside.

The Rise of First-Basket Miss Betting

"No First Basket" or "First Basket Miss" bets are exploding across TikTok, Reddit, and FanDuel. And it’s justified as our analysis across the 2023–2024 and 2024–2025 WNBA seasons uncovers a statistical edge that’s been hiding in plain sight.

The early minutes of a WNBA game are more chaotic than most bettors realize. In fact, the first shot miss rate has increased from 57.4% in 2023–24 to 61.3% in 2024–25. That’s a +4% jump in just one season.

This seemingly small uptick is significant for prop markets. It means that in nearly two out of every three games this year, the first shot is a brick. For those betting on "Player X to Score First," that’s a red flag. More telling? 74.1% of games this season saw the top 3 favorites fail to score first. The public tends to hammer stars, but the numbers show the smart money is going the other way.

Clark, Reese, and the Prop Market Trap

Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese are two of the most-watched players in women’s basketball. But if you’ve been betting them to score first? You’re probably losing money.

Clark: 4 first baskets in 24 games (16.7%), despite being the odds-on favorite in 15 of those matchups.

Reese: 2 first baskets in 20 games (10%), yet appeared in the top 3 most likely scorers 12 times.

This isn’t a knock on their skills, it's a reflection of how messy the first 90 seconds of a game can be: missed 3s, tipped rebounds, and fast-break turnovers make predictability nearly impossible.

Combined, they’ve converted just 6 of 44 opportunities: 13.6%, despite being top-three betting favorites in over half of those contests.

Why is this happening?

Because the opening possessions of WNBA games are chaotic: Rushed 3-point attempts, Miscommunication on set plays, Physical defense and no-calls, Deflections, shot clock violations, early-game nerves. All these factors increase the likelihood of a missed first shot, a turnover, or an unexpected scorer cleaning up a rebound.

The First Bucket Is Slower Than You Think

Despite the league’s fast pace and high energy, the average time until the first basket has stretched from 69 seconds (2023–24) to 76 seconds (2024–25).

That may not sound like a big deal, but in betting time, 7 seconds is everything. More time before a bucket = more value in "No Score in First Minute" props, which have hit 58.9% of the time this season.

Each game’s first successful field goal timestamp was recorded and averaged across all games. Shot clock timestamps or game clock timestamps (e.g., "8:51 1st Q") from the play-by-play logs were converted into seconds elapsed since tip-off. Thus, 2024–25 games with Angel Reese and Caitlin Clark were heavily featured to reflect public betting focus.

Fan Engagement: Betting Is Starting Early

According to Sports Business Journal, first-quarter WNBA viewership is up 31% year-over-year, and43% of in-game bets are now placed in the first five minutes, up from 29% from 2022.

This surge in early engagement is reshaping betting behavior. First basket props driven by hype, social media buzz, and market exposure are spiking in popularity. But here’s the twist: with that popularity comes inefficiency. The betting market is emotional. And emotion inflates odds. That’s where value hunters thrive.

Advanced Angles: Fading Based on Matchups

Let’s say you still want to fade smart. Here are some matchup-based filters you can add:

• Avoid players guarded by top perimeter defenders (e.g., Betnijah Laney, Satou Sabally)
• Fade first baskets when your star is playing on the road first shots are more likely to be rushed
• Look for teammates who take the first shot more often check shot logs, not just usage rate
• Monitor tip-off win rates some centers lose the tip more than half the time, nullifying first-basket potential

The Data Behind It All

All data was compiled from:

• Basketball-Reference WNBA logs (2023–2025) - basketball-reference.com/wnba/
• Shot-by-shot sequences from official WNBA play-by-play data
• ESPN Play-by-Play logs for timing verification
• FanDuel and BetMGM prop history for odds tracking
• Sportradar Q1 betting activity stats for market analysis